India Global Capability Centres will keep growing through the AI era, according to a new report — but the jobs they create will look different. Embark, a GCC setup services firm backed by the Embassy Group, projects that the sector’s workforce will rise from about 2.3 million today to 3.3–3.7 million by 2031, adding 1–1.4 million net jobs and generating 150–170 million sq ft of incremental office demand.
The report, titled India GCCs in the AI Era: Implications for Workforce Growth and Office Demand, draws on a survey of 100 India GCC leaders, executive interviews and market data. Its central argument is that AI will reshape the composition of GCC workforces before it changes their overall size — that automation, slower backfilling and role consolidation will moderate demand for routine roles by 0.4–0.5 million, while expanded mandates, new centres and AI-led role creation add more than enough to offset the loss.
AI changes composition, not size
The specifics matter more than the headline. Existing GCCs should account for about 80% of incremental additions, as mature centres move from delivery mandates to owning entire functions, products and platforms. Demand will tilt toward AI, data, platform engineering, cybersecurity, solution architecture, governance, observability and domain-specialist roles — making workforces more capability-dense rather than simply larger. India’s AI-specialist talent pool could reach 0.8–0.9 million by 2031, from roughly 0.3 million in 2026.
There is a pipeline behind the growth, too. The report estimates that about 3,144 viable Global 5000 companies have yet to set up an India GCC, implying 590–640 new setups by 2031, with mid-market firms accounting for about 28% of them via lower-capital “Nano GCCs” of 5–100 specialists. About 90% of new setups should land in Tier 1 cities, with Bengaluru and Hyderabad already accounting for 67% of Tier 1 leasing.
The office-demand projection is consistent with what the market is seeing. Colliers found that GCCs leased about 118 million sq ft of Grade A office space since 2021 — 37% of overall demand — and took a 46% share in the first half of 2026. Embark’s 150–170 million sq ft over five years sits inside that trajectory. The report adds a qualitative shift: collaboration and shared spaces should rise from 27% to 55% of workplace allocation by 2031, as GCCs design for hybrid work and specialist infrastructure rather than rows of seats.
The adoption-versus-value gap
The most interesting finding is also the least self-serving. While 92% of surveyed leaders say they have moved beyond selective AI adoption, realised productivity gains remain below 15%. The report attributes the gap to data readiness, workflow redesign, governance, role readiness and weak value measurement — the same obstacles that stall AI programmes across industries. For a firm that profits from GCC expansion to foreground that gap is a credibility signal rather than a pitch.
It is also consistent with independent evidence. Nasscom-Zinnov’s own 2026 report found GCCs slowing hiring and shifting from volume to specialised talent, with 75% of centres potentially becoming Portfolio or Transformation Hubs within five years — the same “growth in capability, not just seats” trend. Awfis-Zinnov reported AI/ML talent inside GCCs nearly doubling from 122,000 in 2023 to a projected 250,000 in 2026.
What to watch
Three things will show whether the forecast holds. First, whether the routine-role reduction actually lands as automation matures, since the offsetting gains depend on mandates deepening faster than roles disappear. Second, whether the adoption-versus-value gap narrows, because GCC growth that produces productivity without measurable value invites clients to question the economics. Third, whether the greenfield pipeline converts, since the 590–640 new setups are the report’s largest assumption and the most exposed to global macroeconomic conditions.
What the report does and doesn’t establish
It establishes a forecast of 1–1.4 million net new jobs and 150–170 million sq ft of office demand by 2031, a shift in workforce composition toward specialist roles, and a documented gap between AI adoption and realised value. It does not establish that these projections will be met, that the 100-leader survey is representative, or that a vendor’s forecast is free of commercial interest.
The honest summary: Embark’s report is a forecast from an interested party — the firm sells GCC setup services, so its growth projections deserve the usual discount. But its central claims are hard to dismiss. The current base and the office-demand trajectory match independent data, and Nasscom and Zinnov echo the composition-shift thesis. The most useful takeaway is not the headline number but the gap behind it: India’s Global Capability Centres have adopted AI faster than they can measure its value, and how quickly they close that gap will decide whether the next phase is growth in capability or merely growth in headcount.
Editor’s Note: This article draws on the Embark release and the company’s published report summary, plus independent data from Zinnov-Nasscom’s GCC Landscape 2026, Colliers’ GCC report 2026, JLL’s India GCC Guide 2026, and Nasscom-Zinnov and Awfis-Zinnov research. The 2031 projections are Embark’s, based on its survey and market data; Embark provides GCC setup services and is backed by the Embassy Group, an interest disclosed here. No interview was conducted.